WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY

LIBERTY, January 22, 2014 - A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT. THERMAL PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...THE FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SOME ICING OF BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE FIGHTING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE AND THE FREEZING RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH. IT WILL ONLY TAKE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AS THIS EVENT NEARS.

 

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