Local Weather Update

LIBERTY, September 20, 2013 – Liberty County Emergency Management Coordinator Tom Branch updated our local weather conditions stating the main concern for southeast Texas is the locally heavy rainfall/flood threat. The models have slowed the movement of the front tonight/Saturday, and this has resulted in a higher rainfall potential, and extended the threat into Saturday.

We expect widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 4 to 7 inches possible where cell training occurs.

We are going to be looking closely at our model guidance later today, and will be considering a flash flood watch for Friday night/Saturday.

The tropical disturbance labeled AL95, in the southern Gulf, now has a reduced chance of development (medium - 30 percent). It is currently poorly organized, but is still being monitored. It is centered about 90 miles off of the
Mexican coast near Tampico and is slowly moving northwest. This area of low pressure may merge with the approaching front when it nears the coast this weekend. Models are showing a broad area of low pressure along the northern Mexican/Texas coast and in the northwest Gulf, Saturday through Monday.
So, in a nutshell, it is a complex situation where either a non-tropical low, or a tropical depression could still form.

Tides are about 1 foot above normal this morning. High tide along the beach front occurs 5-7 PM today and on Saturday. it still appears that water levels will peak below problem levels ~3.5 feet.


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