HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

LIBERTY, April 15, 2012 - TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE A GRADUAL EAST SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 PM.

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE START OF POTENTIAL FLOODING...SO ITS POSITION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND LARGER SURF WILL POSE AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROBABLY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD EXIST. THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IF IT STALLS OFF THE COAST...THE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD END UP BEING OFFSHORE. IF IT STALLS INLAND...A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FLOODING THREAT COULD SET UP.

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. IF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OR OFF THE COAST...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT WOULD END UP LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

 

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