HOUSTON June 17, 2018 ⎯ We're continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the southwestern Caribbean that is forecast to reach the Gulf of Mexico late this week. Bottom Line - Tropical moisture will be moving into Southeast Texas mainly Sunday afternoon through Monday night and will bring round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected. The higher totals will probably end up closer to the coast and the lower totals will end up well inland. Run up on the beaches will cause strong rip currents and beach flooding.
A tropical wave in the south central Gulf of Mexico will move toward the Texas coast over the next several days. Currently, the National Hurricane Center has a 20% chance of development through Wednesday. This system should push deep tropical moisture into Southeast Texas Sunday through Tuesday on breezy southeasterly winds. The greatest rain chances will be across the southern portions of the area with the most intense rainfall focused mainly south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Widespread accumulations of 0.75 to 1.50 inches across the northern portions of the area and 2 to 4 inches with higher isolated totals across the south are anticipated. The focus should be on locally heavy rainfall Sunday PM through Monday evening which could lead to street flooding.
Coastal and Marine
A long onshore fetch will produce seas of 5 to 8 feet near shore and 8 to 11 feet offshore with isolated seas possibly approaching 12 feet. Rough surf conditions and strong rip currents are also expected. Elevated tides and wave run up will be possible at times of high tide with some minor coastal flooding possible along the Bolivar peninsula and the Blue Water Highway Sunday and Monday during the hours around high tide.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
- Drive with caution. Cars may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
- Pay attention to the weather. Monitor NWS, HCFCD, and TranStar for current conditions.
- Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.