HOUSTON June 15, 2018 ⎯ Periods of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend and into early next week. Widespread rainfall of 2 to 5 inches is forecast with isolated higher amounts possible, and isolated flooding will be possible in areas that receive the higher totals.
A tropical wave currently near the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to slowly move northwestward towards the area over the weekend. Tropical development is unlikely, with the National Hurricane Center only giving it a 10% chance for development over the next 5 days. Regardless of development, the system will bring periods of heavy rainfall to the area this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall could start near the coast as early as Saturday night before spreading further inland Sunday or Sunday night. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated higher amounts possible. Higher amounts are more likely closer to the coast. Deep tropical moisture will allow rain rates of up to around 2.5 inches per hour, but storm motion should be quick enough to keep individual storms moving along. Flooding issues may arise if multiple stronger storms begin to track over the same area.
It is too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain may fall, as this is largely dependent on where the system actually tracks.
Coastal and Marine
A long onshore fetch will produce seas of 5 to 8 feet near shore and 8 to 11 feet offshore with isolated seas possibly approaching 12 feet. Rough surf conditions and strong rip currents are also expected. Elevated tides and wave run up will be possible at times of high tide with some minor coastal flooding possible along the Bolivar peninsula Sunday and Monday.
Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
- Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
- Pay attention to the weather. Monitor NWS, HCFCD, and TranStar for current conditions.
- Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.