Update: Eye on the Tropics

MIAMI June 11, 2018 ⎯ Attention continues to focus on the Gulf of Mexico for the coming weekend. We are continuing to monitor a tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean sea, as it is expected to move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Regardless of how this tropical wave evolves, it looks to bring much needed rainfall to the region this weekend.

What We Know
- A tropical wave looks to reach the southwestern Gulf sometime Friday.
- There is a low (20%) chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days within the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
- Rain chances are increasing for the upcoming weekend.
- Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought exists along the Upper Texas Coast. This weekend looks to bring much needed rainfall to the weekend. However, if too much of this rain falls in too short of a period of time, isolated

Flooding issues may be a possibility.
- Deteriorated marine conditions will be possible this weekend if swell from this tropical wave reaches the coast. This may result in building seas, an increasing rip current risk, and the potential for slightly above to above normal tide levels along the immediate coast.

What We Don't Know
- If tropical cyclone development will occur.
- Exact rainfall amounts or locations that will experience the highest rainfall totals.
- Exact wave heights or tide levels along the coast.
The next email briefing will be sent by Tuesday afternoon.

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