Tropical Update

MIAMI June 13, 2018 ⎯ There has been very little change with the overall forecast for late this week and this weekend since the last briefing. We're continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the southwestern Caribbean that is forecast to reach the Gulf of Mexico late this week.

What We Know
- A tropical wave is forecast to reach the southwestern Gulf sometime Friday.
- There is a low (20%) chance for tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days within the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This has not changed since the last email briefing.
- Rain chances should increase during the upcoming weekend. When the rain begins will depend on how quickly the tropical wave reaches the southwestern Gulf.
- Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought exists along the Upper Texas Coast. The tropical wave in the Gulf looks to bring much needed rainfall to the region. Drought will help mitigate, but not eliminate, a flood risk. If too much of rain falls in too short of a period of time, isolated flooding issues may be a possibility.
- Deteriorated marine conditions will be possible this weekend if swells from this tropical wave reaches the coast. This may result in building seas, an increasing rip current risk, and the potential for slightly above to above normal tide levels along the immediate coast.

What We Don't Know
- Whether or not tropical cyclone development will occur.
- Exact rainfall amounts or locations that will experience the highest rainfall totals. Confidence in amounts is expected to increase late in the work week.
- Exact wave heights or tide levels along the coast.
The next email briefing will be sent by Wednesday afternoon.

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