LIBERTY, August 1, 2017 - An upper level trough coupled with tropical moisture will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some of the rain will be locally heavy at times.
It is difficult to pinpoint the exact timing and locations affected but at this time, it appears that areas north and east of a Brenham to Houston to Galveston line have the best potential to receive locally heavy rain. Showers are expected to develop near the coast between 4 AM and 6 AM with a secondary round of rain possibly developing near the upper level trough between Waco and College Station prior to sunrise. These two distinct areas of rain will eventually phase and expand over areas from Huntsville to Houston during the late morning into the afternoon. Due to recent drying conditions west and south of Houston, widespread flooding concerns are not anticipated but urbanized areas may see minor impacts from high rain rates during the afternoon commute on Wednesday.
Confidence in timing/location remains low as where rain falls earlier in the day (as well as any boundaries they leave behind) will ultimately decide which locations see the highest totals on Wednesday. However, confidence that some part of Southeast Texas will receive heavy rain is moderate to high.
Some short term guidance is suggesting that a boundary will develop near the coast and focus storms closer to the coast. If this scenario pans out, the convection near the coast will rob moisture from the expected storms over the north and little in the way of rain will fall near College Station and Huntsville.